Greenberg: With 60 games left, it's another lost season for the wandering Cubs (2024)

CHICAGO — Last season, 84 wins got two National League teams in the playoffs.

The Cubs, harkening back to their Charlie Brown-like reputation, finished with 83.

This year, 84 wins could again, conceivably, get two teams into the postseason as almost every team in the NL is in contention for those wild-card sports. Just like baseball wanted, right?

But once again, the big-market, big-money Cubs will likely be left out of that October mix. It’s a low bar to make the postseason in a three wild-card world and the Cubs keep tripping on it.

Last year at this point, the Cubs were starting an eight-game winning streak that made sellers into buyers. It would’ve worked, too, if not for that pesky month of September.

Of course, almost doesn’t get you into the playoffs, and if you’re a manager, almost can get you fired. (Just ask David Ross.)

Now, it looks like the Cubs, with the audacity of a high school procrastinator, are cramming in victories before the deadline once again. A day after avoiding a sweep to Arizona with a walk-off walk in the 10th inning, they beat the Milwaukee Brewers, 3-1.

“Our job in the clubhouse right now is to make it tough on Jed.”

Ian Happ on the trade deadline. pic.twitter.com/m5wHMfuwYP

— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) July 23, 2024

While it’s great that Wrigley Field was rocking out to “Go Cubs Go” two days in a row, if you’ve watched this team all season, you’re not buying this as the start of something new. I don’t think the Cubs are either.

Before the game, Cubspresident Jed Hoyer wouldn’t commit to being sellers in a dramatic fashion (they don’t have that much to sell, for one thing), but he tried to walk the tightrope of stating the obvious without waving a white flag. He certainly didn’t sound like he was preparing for a redux of 2023 when he added rental infielder Jeimer Canderlario and reliever José Cuas at the deadline.

To start his latest JED Talk, he said he started getting calls in reference to the trade deadline right after the draft and that he was anticipating a busy week. So he was asked the natural follow-up: buyers or sellers?

“Well, I was going to say I think the next seven games obviously matter,” Hoyer said. “You know, certainly we saw what can happen last year.”

But?

“But I think where we are right now, I would say that moves only for ’24, unless things change over the next week, I think probably we won’t do a lot of moves that only help us for this year,” he said. “If moves help us in ’25 and beyond, I think we’re still exceptionally well-positioned. I think that’s what our focus will be. But just helping in ’24, I think that probably won’t be our focus unless things change dramatically.”

That’s a long-winded way of saying, “Sellers.” Who could fetch a return? I bet they’re asking about veteran starter Jameson Taillon and some of the relievers, like Drew Smyly. Cody Bellinger is on the IL with a left middle finger fracture, and while he’s making progress, that injury combined with subpar power numbers this season and two player option years worth more than $50 million left on his contract can’t be helping his trade value. Mike Tauchman could be an extra outfielder for someone.

This isn’t a trade deadline that’s going to dramatically affect the Cubs’ future.

In the offseason, Hoyer and his front office need to do some major self-evaluation in how they build teams (aside from the starting rotation) and figure out exactly what the plan is in the near future. They have a well-regarded farm system but one that looks thin at true impact hitters. They have veterans under contract all over the field and they’re not impact hitters either. They have pitching, but their assembly line of fungible relievers broke down, which helped put the Cubs into a deep hole.

Though their bullpen has righted itself, the Cubs still can’t consistently score runs in bunches. They came into Monday’s game 10th in strikeout rate (23.5 percent) and with the seventh-lowest slugging percentage (.377). On Monday, they went 2-for-10 with runners in scoring position and struck out eight times. Ian Happ had their only extra-base hit, a solo homer.

Despite having the highest payroll in the NL Central, the Cubs are 13-21 in their division, thanks to a woeful stretch from May 16 through June 16 when they went 5-15 against the Central. That’s why the Cubs are where they are. With the new scheduling format, there is less emphasis on divisional play, so it matters even more when you play teams. The Cubs were playing their worst brand of baseball at the worst possible time, and because of that, Monday’s win over the first-place Brewers cut Chicago’s divisional deficit to … nine games. They are only 3 1/2 games out of the third wild card, but they’re behind four other teams.

The Cubs’ plan to spend just enough to win the NL Central isn’t working. Something has to change.

“Unfortunately, this year we haven’t played as well against that group of teams,” Hoyer said. “We have to play better against our own division, for sure.”

While they did play better Monday, it was probably too little, too late.

Exit velocity: 110.9 mph 😮‍💨 pic.twitter.com/uTPOYt13Qg

— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) July 23, 2024

With the hiring of Craig Counsell to an $8 million a year contract, the Cubs were expected to take a step forward this season, not sideways. Counsell is obviously safe, and I don’t think Hoyer’s job is in jeopardy, but we’re closing in on the 10th anniversary of the 2016 team and the Cubs haven’t had a playoff home game (with fans in the stands) since the 2018 wild-card game. They couldn’t score runs in that game either.

With that context of annual disappointments, it’s hard to see how the Cubs dig themselves out of this hole. And I’m not talking about just this year. This hasn’t been a winning organization in a long time.

On Monday, a week before the trade deadline, the man responsible for winning (or not winning) sounded disappointed but not angry. He sounded like a man who has already accepted that this year is a lost cause. But also one who is trying to sell a brighter tomorrow.

“I feel really good about how we’re positioned for the future and beyond,” Hoyer said. “And so I think our moves will reflect that at the deadline.”

I’m glad he feels that way, but right now, I’m not buying it.

(Photo of Craig Counsell, left, and Jed Hoyer: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)

Jon Greenberg is a columnist for The Athletic based in Chicago. He was also the founding editor of The Athletic. Before that, he was a columnist for ESPN and the executive editor of Team Marketing Report. Follow Jon on Twitter @jon_greenberg